photo credit: www.hddesktopwallpaper.org
UPDATE: I am not going to edit my narrative each time I update the data (now latest update is 9/3).
Gronk is gone. My fantasy teams might all need a bit of therapy this year to be able to move on. Until that time, he might show up as the featured picture. Forgive me.
BLUF (bottom line up front)
1) Kelce & Ertz are must-haves, as the drop is significant to the next tier
2) Kittle, Engram, and McDonald are over-rated by 1.2, 1.4, and 0.8 weekly points, respectively
3) Witten, Eifert, and Ertz are under-rated and the latter of which rises to be the overall #2 TE
Analysts seem to get the top 10 for tight ends correct about half of the time. That is, roughly half projected in the top 10 end up outside of it by the end of the year. The past two years have seen accuracy of predicting the top 10 at 60% and 40% for 2017 and 2018, respectively. Neither is very good and should make one expect that TE drafting should be approached with quite a bit of skepticism. A lessons learned article can be found HERE.
Priorities
Kelce and Ertz should be looked at as essential targets. The drop off from Kelce (14/game) and Ertz (13.8) in PPR leagues (what this article focuses on) is just over 3 points per game. With this in mind, get one if you can. If you fail on both, try to get Cook. He comes in being drafted per current ADP lists as the #7 TE. However, his projected scoring lands him at the #4 spot. Kittle is projected to go in ADP just prior to Ertz. It would be a mistake to consider them interchangeable. Kittle is expected to get 10.6 points/game vs. the 13.8 from Ertz.
Over-rated
Kittle is the most important over-rated player to know about. That’s because he is going off the board as the #2 tight end. Once might think that means he is somewhat comparable to Kelce. If you consider a drop in weekly points of 3.4 to Kelce comparable- that’s your business. He isn’t to be avoided. But you should know where he actually should be placed in the pecking order. Engram (1.4) and McDonald (0.8) are also on this list. They are both in the sub-10/week category though- so I would not expect early picks to be wasted on them to the degree one might expect for Kittle.
Under-rated
Ertz is the star of this article. He goes in anticipated to the #3 TE by ADP. So it isn’t a true shock to see that he may actually be the #2 in what matters: points. The point drop for Kittle is what makes this so important. There are two in the top tier and Kittle isn’t one of them. Use the current ADP expectations to watch others go after Kelce and snag up Ertz. Witten, who is still not retired apparently, is coming up as under-rated by 2.2 with an expected 8.8 weekly. You could also look to Eifert at 8.5 weekly, as he will go later than he should with his ADP under-rating his expected score by 2 points/week.