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image source: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)
1) Running backs off of the waiver wire are the safest to approach…roughly one-third are startable
2) Wide receivers aren’t worthy of your claim
3) Flex options end up being an overlap of WR and RB…only a few RBs make the cut
4) Deshaun Watson appears to be turning into a great QB waiver claim…although not enough weeks to fully see the trend

Summary
The purpose of this article is to ask (and try to answer) the question: “should I bother with this waiver wire claim mess?” Just to make sure, I will first briefly explain what the waiver wire is and why it’s important (or at least, thought of as important).

Pick ups (and drops) are restricted each week once a team has started their game. This prevents those, who are on the ready to quickly snatch up players, from getting an advantage over the rest of us. The rest of us that is…who aren’t sitting at a control panel of greatness and ready at no notice to pick up anyone. With this in mind, the masses win and there is a cushion of a few days (number determined by the commissioner in league settings) for everyone to try to get the small few who stood out that week.

Players stand out for a variety of reasons:
1) The starter gets injured and the “handicap” becomes the starter
2) A player, who before that week wasn’t relevant, emerges as a high potential player
3) Word of mouth states that someone will start to get more snaps, offense going to do more plays involving them, etc.

So you put in who you’d like…you put in a waiver wire “claim”. Then you worry about getting your claim. That’s due to the “priority” order of the waiver wire. It is typically randomly assigned (but the commissioner can set the waiver priority as well). The waivers are dished out based on this priority. For instance, if two people put in a claim for the same player…the owner with the better priority (lowest is best) will get them. They will then go to the lowest priority.

Now that we know what the waiver wire, along with priority is, let’s look at some data.

I looked at the top five waiver wire selections each week for the first few weeks of the season. Then I wanted to see how each of these selections performed in the weeks following their pick up. Note that I used the first week they appeared in cases where the same player was in the top five for multiple weeks.

I have included the thresholds necessary for a player to be considered a starter at their respective position. For RBs and WRs there are two spots for each and Flex has one slot. I understand that this can vary…so keep that in consideration for yourself as you look at how many are in the “bench” status.

RBs
Running backs are the most promising position if you’re looking to join the waiver wire bandwagon. Roughly 1/3 of the pick ups from this position are worthy of starting week to week. Those small few hitting this qualification aren’t consistent every week- but even those drafted to stick around as a #1 or #2 aren’t consistent. Note that those in this category of start worthy were also the result of the first category given (injured starter). Other than that being the case, don’t bother using a waiver claim on a running back.

It is also noteworthy that timeshares resulting from an injury leave a lot of questions unanswered. I bring this up because everyone knows that the top overall player, David Johnson, went down. It was expected that Kerwynn Williams (1st/2nd down) and Andre Ellington (3rd down) would become relevant. Well, Andre Ellington is now start worthy each week and is currently getting the most receptions of any running back. Williams on the other hand was never a good start. The Cardinals brought in Chris Johnson from the couch to take all of the points many expected would go to Williams. So, with this example, tread carefully when the replacement is going to be a committee.

The plot below represents running back selections. The color expressed what ranking the player had at the time of the hype around them being in the pool of top claims for the week. The shading shows where the average of a tier exists (so it extends slightly above and below the line).

WRs
This year hasn’t produced anything very noteworthy in the wide receiver position from the waiver wire. Cooper Kupp flirted with a start worthy score for just one week…but then returned to mediocrity. Keep in mind that I only took the top five waiver wire suggestions for each week. This is noteworthy, as Jaron Brown would have been a reasonably good play in most weeks. But he has been further down the suggested waiver wire lists. His teammate, JJ Nelson, made the waiver wire list. But Nelson has actually been less productive than Brown. The gist though for WRs is it is much more difficult (so far at least) to find someone useful who will be in your future roster week to week.

FLEXs
Flex is a little more forgiving, the thresholds for this position are slightly lower. Basically, you might not find anyone worthy of being a #1 or a #2 WR or RB. But you may have a chance at a flex option. Well, not really. The only ones in this area are repeats of those mentioned under RB. If you are lucky enough to have solid #1 and #2 RBs..are then lucky enough to get one of the start worthy RBs from waivers…then your newly acquired RB will end up being a good fill at flex.

QB didn’t have enough weeks of history to get mentioned. However, it is quite obvious at this point that rookie Deshaun Watson out of Clemson (go ACC!) has caught on quickly to the speed and coverages of the NFL. He would have been a very rare find at QB, who will likely continue to be at or near the top 5 in weekly rankings for the duration of the season.

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Footnotes

  1. Smith also describes himself as AccuWeather’s vice president of international strategy on his LinkedIn page.

  2. My husband, Christopher Baker, is a project executive at the Weidt Group, a Minnesota-based company that offers some similar services to EnergyCap.

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