image credit: nflspinzone.com
Latest update of data on 9/3. Note that I will not be updating the narrative with each iteration at this point.
BLUF (bottom line up front)
1) Focus on the Saints in a later round
2) Do not waste a mid-round pick on the Bears or the Rams
3) Keep in mind the inaccuracy of the past (only 20-50% of the top 10 actually make it)
You should tread carefully with DST selections. We know going in that over the past two years the accuracy of predicting the top 10 of them has been 20% and 50% for 2017 and 2018, respectively. There certainly was a great improvement year-over-year. However, 50% is still not terribly reliable. A lessons learned article can be found HERE.
Over-rated
Considering the historical inaccuracy of the preseason top 10, the Jags, Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys are popping out of the screen. They are over-rated. These four are my vote to be ones failing to make it into the top 10 once we get to the end of the regular season.
Under-rated
Who will take the place of those four mentioned above? My votes are for the Saints, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, and Steelers. Keep history in mind as you spend your DST pick. Don’t drop your head as you hear the Bears and the Rams fall away. You can lose very little, and potentially do better, by waiting.
Parity after 4
There is a lot of parity at this position. Note the slow descent when you sort by weekly score. You don’t lose much when you drop from the top team to the tenth ranked team. By projected score this is a reduction in weekly score from 6.5 to 6.1. You will be better off fighting for position players like running back or wide receiver.