image credit: pro football focus
Determining draft value for RB in PPR
Bottom line up front:
1. There is a steep drop-off at RB after the top 4.
2. There appears to be a group of RB from ADP 20 to 52 that are not separated by much in terms of FPPG.
3. Maximize value by finding a player’s plotted point on the chart and looking horizontally to find similar or better value in later rounds.
It’s no secret. You have to draft good value to master the art of fantasy football drafts. Whether it’s a snake, traditional, or auction-style, value always gives an advantage. Let’s take a look at the visual above displaying the 2019 RB projected fantasy points per game (FPPG) and their current Average Draft Position (ADP). The FPPG and ADP are aggregates from multiple sites so they provide a relatively accurate snapshot of the current fantasy football community. The curved line (fit-line) in the midst of the plotted points is your guide to value as it demonstrates the expected FPPG at that ADP for RB. The higher or lower a player is in comparison to the line, the better or worse his value is at that ADP. This chart is a very useful tool for maximizing value in your draft. It can be used to: find cut-off points for value among a group of players, find better value by locating a player projected to score similarly but be drafted later, identify players that are overrated and thus, are being drafted higher than they should at their projected FPPG. All of this leads to a better draft for you.
You could make a case that any of those top 4 RB be the #1 overall choice. However, the slight advantage based on FPPG goes to both Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey who are projected slightly higher than Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara but only by a total range of 1.4 FPPG. However, it’s easy to see that there is a gap between those RB in the top 4 and RB ranked 5-8. This gap is indicative of a difference of at least 3 FPPG! That is a significant dropoff! That being said, it should be mentioned that landing RB8, James Connor, with the 11th pick is the best value of that group.
Theoretically, the player who is highest on the y-axis should be the next one drafted. If you click on a player’s name in the list below the graph or if you click his plot in the graph, a horizontal line will appear across the entire graph at that point on the y-axis. Any player above that line on the graph is projected to score more FPPG. Usually, most or all of the players to the left and above that horizontal line will be taken before your chance at drafting. So, if the player is above and to the the left, he is a good value and should be taken. Any player plotted to the right and above is a chance at better value to be taken later. You should draft him at a later point in the draft according to his ADP instead of the player on which you’ve clicked.
Let’s look at an example. Click on Nick Chubb in the list of players below the graph. Notice he is located right on the value fit-line. You may not lose out if you select him at his ADP of 21, but let’s look for better value. Assuming all RB to the left and above him are drafted, follow the horizontal line to the right from his name, looking for other RB that are close to that line or even above it if you’re lucky. You will notice there is a grouping of RB starting with him at ADP 21 and ending with Chris Carson at ADP 52. There are 12 RB between those two with 8 of them being within 0.5 FPPG of Chubb’s projected 13.6. So, unless you believe the “wisdom of the crowd” is wrong and Chubb is going to crush it this year, then don’t use an early 3rd round pick on him when you can maximize value by drafting a stud at another position instead and then drafting a RB like Derrick Henry (13.5 FPPG, 37.9 ADP) or Chris Carson (13.6 FPPG, 52.2 ADP) later on. The obvious advantage is that this frees up your options and allows you to select value at other positions while not losing out much at RB. Folks, that’s how value drafting is done. Isn’t this fun!
SOME OTHER QUICK TAKE-AWAYS ARE:
1. Some players that stand out as underrated and thus are good values for their ADP are: Leonard Fournette (14.6 FPPG, 28.7 ADP), Chris Carson (13.6 FPPG, 52.2 ADP), Kenyan Drake (13.1 FPPG, 50.6 ADP), Lamar Miller (11.8 FPPG, 75.3 ADP), LeSean McCoy (10.0 FPPG, 98.2 ADP), and Peyton Barber (9.2 FPPG, 137 ADP). Each has proven they can be a productive fantasy RB; however, LeSean McCoy and Peyton Barber are risks. Buffalo brought in Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon and then drafted Devin Singletary with the 74th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Barber has to contend with Tampa Bay’s 2018 second round pick Ronald Jones II having a good start this year. But at McCoy’s and Barber’s ADP of 98.2 and 137 respectively, it doesn’t cost you much to get them.
2. Players that are well below the fit-line stand out as being O-VER-RA-TED at their current ADP. Some of these are: Darius Guice (8.5 FPPG, 61.5 ADP), Darrell Henderson (7.4 FPPG, 66.3 ADP), Kareem Hunt (5.3 FPPG, 77.6 ADP), Rashaad Penny (7.1 FPPG, 80.0 ADP), Ronald Jones II (5.6 FPPG, 88.1 ADP), Carlos Hyde (5.2 FPPG, 112.9 ADP), Devin Singletary (3.4 FPPG, 115.3 ADP), and Isaiah Crowell (0.0 FPPG, 125.3 ADP) who was put on IR for 2019 and is still being drafted. So, it should go without saying but I’ll say it anyway; don’t draft Isaiah Crowell! I won’t go too deep into the later rounds as many of those players are taken as fliers anyway. All of these overrated players have a degree of risk involved; however, Henderson and Singletary are being drafted as upside risks with hopes of them getting significant playing time due to injury or trade of Todd Gurley or McCoy so I understand them being drafted higher than their projections would indicate they are worth. Darius Guice is coming off of a severe injury but then again, Adrian Peterson has shown that can be done with success. Speaking of Adrian Peterson, barring injury, he’s likely to stand in the way of Guice getting significant touches this year. I think Hunt is obviously more difficult to peg due to his 8 game suspension. We just don’t know what the deal will be in Cleveland upon his return. Will it be a split with Hunt and Chubb? Will Chubb keep the majority of touches if he’s done well at that point? I think the data is probably skewed with Hunt due to that uncertainty.