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Harvard Extension School | Introduction to Space Studies, SSCI-180
Manning the Mission to Mars
Note that space explorers use Google Chrome and not Windows Explorer. With that in mind, this article is best viewed using Chrome. An interactive dashboard with the views included in the paper can be accessed HERE. Do yourself a favor and use a desktop device.
Summary
Humans seek to expand their reach into space for a variety of reasons. This discussion will focus on the primary reason for Elon Musk: avoiding the catastrophic loss of the human race due to reliance on one planet. Key periods along the settlement timeline will be viewed to understand what tangible milestones are necessary over the course of the effort to bring substantial cargo and people to Mars. A high-level view of the talent required to execute these milestones will be projected along the timeline in order to successfully have a multi-planetary human race.
Why go to space?
The motivations to reach beyond Earth are many. Three will be discussed:
1. Exploration of resources
2. Environmental need for Earth
3. Catastrophic risk avoidance
Component 1: Exploration of resources
The potential to find new and valuable resources away from Earth is unlimited. It has been stated as “still a long way from commercial viability” but when feasible, an example of the potential is that “a single asteroid the size of a football field could contain $25 billion to $50 billion worth of platinum” per a Goldman Sachs analyst (Davenport).
China is one such state falling into the category of those wishing to explore space for financial gain. As stated, “China’s space ambition is to harness the vast resources available in space to benefit and sustain its economic rise” (“China’s”)
Component 2: Environmental need for Earth
One of the many benefits of space exploration is that we can see our home planet from afar. The ability to capture everything at-a-glance enables one to see that borders are not visible from space. They are merely something that we imprint at our most granular level while standing on its soil. With this view and appreciation, one is able to comprehend a new perspective, or “The Overview Effect” (White). Approximately “550 humans have left the planet for brief periods” and many have been impacted by this new vision (“History”). Environmentalists have embraced it and some, like Jeff Bezos, understand that “we have to leave the earth to save it” (“Space”). Bezos’ solution in space would follow the template described by Gerard O’Neill to create space settlements within Lagrange points (“Space”).
Component 3: Catastrophic risk avoidance
There are some with the belief that humans will meet the same fate as the dinosaurs before us: extinction. This may result from another asteroid collision, or perhaps from our own means. That is, we may find all of life the subject of mutually assured destruction. Elon Musk follows this reasoning as his primary driver for seeking a multi-planetary human race (“Elon”).
Sights on $200K
Elon Musk at SpaceX has a mission to make space travel more affordable. Specifically, he wants ordinary people to be able to make the trip to Mars, at least, once it is an option. That said, it is not far into the future. The projected cost for one trip per person is expected to be 10 billion USD (“Elon”). This is if significant intervention is not taken.
Elon Musk has his sight fixed on 200 thousand USD. That is what he believes is possible for getting one trip per person from Earth to the surface of Mars.
There are four components necessary to achieve this reduction:
1. Full reusability
2. Refilling in orbit
3. Propellant production on Mars
4. Right propellant
(“Elon”)
Component 1: Full reusability
This refers to the entire vessel, meaning the capsule and the rockets. SpaceX often refers to theirs as the “Mars Vehicle” (“Elon”). Past space vessels have had rocket boosters that would fall to the ocean after getting into space. Losing these boosters to open water is no longer a relevant issue. Blue Origin, led by Jeff Bezos, and SpaceX have both successfully integrated reusable rockets into their space vessels (Davenport).
Component 2: Refilling in orbit
The idea here is that the cargo and/or human capsule will be launched into orbit. It will be left in orbit as the booster returns to Earth to receive fuel. The rocket, now with the added fuel, will launch back into space and rendezvous with the capsule. The fuel will then be transferred to the capsule. This method is superior to having all fuel initially, as the additional weight to launch the fully fueled rocket would be substantial to the point of limiting feasibility (“Elon”).
Component 3: Propellant production on Mars
Propellant production on Mars is also a stated requirement on the Red Planet. Elon Musk presented that there is “effectively unlimited supplies of carbon dioxide and water on Mars” (“Elon”). In magnitude terms, the quantities are projected to be 5 million cubic km of ice and 25 trillion metric tons of CO2 (“Elon”). Sabatier, as shown in figure 1, is the stated method by which the propellant will be formulated.
Figure 1: Propellant formula as stated in “Elon” source video
Component 4: Right propellant
The final pillar to consider is the propellant itself. SpaceX has considered several different options. Efficiency, as well as potential to manufacture on Mars, are both essential. The formula shown in Figure 1 will satisfy both requirements (“Elon”).
Personnel on Mars will specifically target the four components
Component 1: Full reusability
The design of the rockets and the capsule will be completed on Earth. However, it will prove valuable to have inspections on the landing of the capsule to diagnose any mid-life wear that may have an effect on safety or longevity. Their role will be even more important when individuals choose to make a return trip back to Earth.
Component 2: Refilling in orbit
This activity will not be managed by Mars personnel at any perceived future time.
Component 3: Propellant production on Mars
Propellant production on the surface of Mars is going to be one of the most significant activities taking place on the surface. The first trip to Mars is to find water. The second is to start building the propellant plant.
This will require four stages:
1. Develop solar panels
2. Mining and refinement of water
3. Collection of CO2 from the atmosphere
4. Creation of the propellant
(“Watch”)
The execution of this work will require a mix of staff in the areas of chemical, mechanical, civil and electrical engineering. Biologists and material science experts will also be necessary. The staff in this area will need to be assigned at the earliest possible time. The expectation is that their mission would begin on Earth in 2022, monitoring robots executing the initial effort to locate water and develop the propellant plant. Note that all structures would likely utilize 3D printing utilizing the surface of Mars as a key ingredient. The initial crew would need to be on the 2024 transport to Mars’ surface.
Component 4: Right propellant
The engineers on Mars working on component 3, propellant production on Mars, would likely work in this area as well. This activity would consist of quality checking to ensure that the ratio of compounds being transferred to the fuel charging facility is of correct purity. It is anticipated that this role would transition to other team members over time as more personnel are transferred to Mars. There will be a heavy reliance on being cross-functional in the early years and this is a prime example.
Oversight will be necessary
There will be a considerable financial investment in the SpaceX settlement from public and private institutions (“Elon”). Oversights, similar to that of the Government Accountability Office, will be necessary to ensure that the agreed-upon action items of the mission remain on schedule. This will be handled by a small group of government supplied personnel that will likely be scaled up over multiple trips.
Interviews were conducted for input
A supply chain leader at a leading technology company was interviewed to determine any essential components potentially lacking in the plan. She voiced that a method for frequent reporting, in addition to compliance oversight, must be incorporated. This would be handled by a Facility Director using input from each of the focus area Team Leads. She also mentioned the need for law enforcement, currency creation beyond the initiation phase, and a formal way to acclimatize new Mars inhabitants in a method similar to that of immigration on Earth. Lastly, she expressed the importance to incorporate diversity (Sharon).
A former leader in research and development for a power generation company was asked for input on a team necessary to conduct initial and continuous testing of the resources on Mars. She described “a multi-disciplinary group of scientists and engineers such as chemical engineers, mechanical engineers, chemists, and biologists. With a keen interest in soil and atmospheric analysis, and organic material assessments and the right tools to explore/excavate with as minimal disruption to the landscape as possible” (Cassandra). She also expressed a desire for “a cartographer to fully map the landscape” (Cassandra). This environmental focus follows the ethic described by Frank White’s Principle #5 in The Need for a Planetary Engineering Ethic: “A Planet that does not support life and/or intelligence, and is not likely to do so, has a right to existence, but may be modified in support of universal evolution” (“The”).
A group of five males between the ages of 17 and 26 was interviewed to get an impression of what they knew about the Mars settlement and hear what entertainment might be necessary. They mentioned augmented and virtual reality as being essential for integration into daily life. Various forms of adult entertainment, as well as all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), were also given (Call). It was interesting to hear the desire for ATVs, as the unique experience riding on the surface of a surface other than Earth was covered as another unique perspective experience in The Overview Effect (White). Most of these requests fall under the cargo category. Elon Musk has emphasized his desire to make the trip to Mars enjoyable (“Elon”). He certainly intended the same to be true of life on the surface as well. These requests fall within the scope of the mission.
There are physical concerns for the inhabitants
Simulations of a Mars mission unveiled the magnitude of the detrimental effect on sleep. It stated that “the majority of crewmembers also experienced one or more disturbances of sleep quality, vigilance deficits, or altered sleep-wake periodicity and timing, suggesting inadequate circadian entrainment (“Proceedings”). An effort will need to be made, and supported by appropriate medical personnel, to mitigate poor sleep quality.
A look through the lens of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs expresses that needs “include physiological, security, relationship, and existential needs” (“Acta”). Inhabitants must be prepared for “stress-induced depression of the immune system and potential psychological pathologies” (“Acta”). A few personnel will be necessary to help with the counseling of those in the settlement.
What will the food source be?
One article by Advances in Space Research “proposed that the development of ‘modular biospheres’ – closed system units that can be air-locked together and which contain soil-based bioregenerative agriculture, horticulture, with a wetland wastewater treatment system is an approach for Mars habitation scenarios” (“Development”). It may also be useful to plan intentional insect integration into the soil to assist with aeration. Note that some insect consumption may prove helpful to supplement protein deficits.
Where will the talent come from?
Finding people with the skill and willingness to leave everything on Earth behind will be difficult. With this in mind, it is likely that candidates across Earth must be considered. Barriers affecting SpaceX on Earth with work Visas should not extend beyond the confines of Earth. Those countries within ISECG should all be allowed to be involved in the staffing effort. This should be considered a collaborative effort by all humankind and all should be able to participate. Despite exclusion from the International Space Station, China is a member of the ISECG and should also have incorporation in the staffing model.
T=2022
The initial effort on Mars has been stated to be for two shipments of cargo and to source water for the future settlement. It is likely that the focus would be “to establish a base near North Polar Layered Deposits to investigate Mars’ climate, hydrological processes and to test for possible traces of life” (“Systems”). This work will initially be completed by robots, with the programming and future aid of software engineers, biologists, and miners. That said, the total population on the surface will be zero at this time.
T=2024
26 months have passed since the initial cargo transport to Mars. These trips to Mars will be different. Four trips are planned split with two for cargo and two for personnel. The current expectation is that the capsule will house 100 people, which comes to a total population of 200 for transport. While this is the plan, it is unlikely. There are typically fewer than a dozen people inhabiting the International Space Station (Harvey). A shift from single digits to two hundred would be too significant of a step change to be considered feasible. My expectation is that the first settlement in 2024 will likely be closer to 40 as shown in figure 2. A key takeaway during this period is that besides coverage for overhead and recreation, nearly all of the population is STEM-related as indicated by the light blue color in the figure.
T=2034
Roughly one decade into human’s first experience as a multi-planetary race will see some increase in the STEM-related disciplines. But the most gains will be in unspecified non-STEM inhabitants. It’s imperative that people on Mars have an enjoyable experience. This is what drives the presence of these non-mission specific inhabitants. Note that technology-related functions under recreation exist to satisfy the request for augmented and virtual reality. Law enforcement, banking personnel and immigration support would also be fully adopted by this phase. My expectation is that growth will still be gradual and the total one decade it will be close to 500 as shown in figure 3. The STEM-related functions, depicted in light blue, are clearly becoming secondary to unspecified inhabitants. The goal is to create a society like that of one on Earth and this group is meant to fill more traditional paths outside of the mission specific roles (“Elon”).
T=2065
The intention is to get one million people on Mars after approximately 40-50 years. This will be much more feasible as the number of transport vehicles increases in number and capacity. The current capsule is planned to be large enough for 100 people, with the potential for 200 in the near term. Between the 2020s and 2065, there will be many revisions to the design to expedite the shipment of people (“Elon”). That considered, my expectation remains more reserved with a projection closer to 50,000 Mars inhabitants in 2065 as shown in figure 4. The trend of unspecified inhabitants to overtake mission related ones is quite clear in this period. Nearly the entire population of Mars at this point is doing work outside of the scope of Mars specific research and development.
Conclusion
In the eyes of Elon Musk, it matters “less about who goes there first”, but more so that we simply get to Mars to mitigate the risk of a catastrophic loss of the human race (“Elon”). Those first individuals to make the trip must be exceptional in their level of skill in their competency area, as well as accepting of the fact that “the risk of fatality will be high” (“Elon”). My projection over the next several decades is shown in figure 5.
This is the type of venture that would rise slowly in adoption and then explode once the settlement is proven to be close in benefits to that seen on Earth. The ability to return to Earth will also be possible starting in the mid-growth period, which will lead to more people choosing to take part. The possibility of humans on Mars will soon change to reality and this document should serve as an example of who will be needed over time to implement the effort.
Bibliography
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